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Analysis

PST compiles a number of analysis products both for the use of the service and on assignment from national decision makers who are responsible for cases or matters associated with PST’s areas of responsibility. PST’s annual threat assessment is an example of one such analysis.

advice

PST is responsible for giving advice to other Norwegian authorities and parts of the business sector on matters that affect public security. The service assists both public and private players. Examples of sectors with which PST cooperates are oil and energy, transport, banking and finance and government administration.

Analysis and Advice

Strategic analysis

The strategic analysis products from PST are intended to increase insight into and understanding of development trends in the national threat situation. The recipients of such assessments will most often be politicians in leadership positions and other strategic decision makers. Strategic analysis reports differ from operational and tactical analysis reports, which are compiled to support ongoing operational activities. At a high level, the strategic analysis production in PST is targeted at national decision makers who are responsible for cases or matters connected to the service’s areas of responsibility. The main recipients are political leaders and ministries whose work is related to PST’s main duties, key leadership bodies in the Norwegian police and defence, and major players in the Norwegian business sector.

PST’s strategic analysis production mainly encompasses two types of reports – thematic intelligence assessments and strategic threat assessments.

Thematic intelligence assessments address a thematically limited issue and evaluate how this is relevant for the threat situation against Norway and Norwegian interests. The objective is to create greater insight into and understanding of the extent to which such issues can affect the threat against Norway and Norwegian interests, and if appropriate the way in which this can be done. In 2009 several such strategic analyses have been compiled – first and foremost related to terrorism, but also to the intelligence threat against Norway. In thematic intelligence assessments PST’s focus has included phenomena such as radicalisation, travel activities, players who pose threats related to ongoing conflicts abroad, and the intelligence threat against Norwegian petroleum resources. Thematic assessments can also be based on specific threat players and their activities against Norway or Norwegian interests. Such thematic reports can include assessments of individual terrorist organisations, foreign states’ intelligence services, and groups and organisations within national extremist environments.

Strategic threat assessments have either specific incidents as their starting point or factors that have – or can have – significance for the threat situation in Norway or for Norwegian interests abroad. Such incidents include large-scale acts of terrorism against Western goals, effected or averted acts of terrorism in Europe, acts of terrorism against the interests of other Nordic countries, or specific threats against Norway abroad.

The purpose of these assessments is to describe for political leaders and other decision makers any threats that may have arisen as a result of a specific incident and to assess the consequences for Norway and Norwegian interests. Such assessments can also be geared more specifically towards special objects within key social sectors and critical infrastructure.

Thematic intelligence analyses or threat assessments that address terrorism abroad and connections to the threat situation for Norwegian interests are compiled in cooperation with the Intelligence Service within the framework of the Joint Analysis Unit.

The work on both thematic intelligence assessments and threat assessments is based on a specific need for knowledge or an assignment formulated by analysts, leaders/managers or external national partners. During 2009 PST has recognised the need to make distinctions in its analysis production: products are now compiled for external recipients to a greater extent than before. In practice this is done by partners addressing specific inquiries to PST requesting the service to prepare a thematic report or a threat assessment. In this way PST wishes to meet the need of some parties for limited assessments on specific sectors.

Security advice

In accordance with its Code of Practice, PST conducts advisory work to strengthen the quality of the security efforts within critical social functions and critical infrastructure. The service assists both public and private players by making an active contribution to ensuring that undertakings succeed in their endeavours to safeguard their interests. Examples of sectors that PST cooperates with are oil and energy, transport, banking and finance, and government administration. Some parts of these sectors receive closer follow-up than others – for example the major oil and gas players and civil aviation.

Different undertakings and sectors need different follow-up since they all face specific challenges and have particular framework conditions that affect security work.

The target groups can be divided into three categories depending on the follow-up they are given with regard to security advice. The first category consists of undertakings that receive close and customised follow-up over a period of time. The second includes industries or sectors which are given follow-up that is particularly relevant for them as a group. The third category targets members of the public who are given access to the subject of security through lectures, articles and various handbooks. In addition PST provides knowledge and advice at various forums that are open to the public.

The decision as to which of these categories an undertaking is to be placed in depends on a number of factors. PST’s assessment includes the social consequences of an undesired incident directed at the undertaking in question, and takes into account both the Norwegian and the international threat situation. PST also provides security advice to Norwegian players abroad.

There is also some variation in the type of assistance the various undertakings receive within the different categories. Factors that affect this include the undertaking’s specific need and the circumstances around a potential or real undesired incident. PST focuses mainly on assistance within security measures aimed at the organisation and the people involved.

PST offers advice but gives no orders and carries out no supervision. The undertakings themselves are responsible for making assessments, taking decisions and conducting the work related to security, but PST assists with the quality assurance of the process and the result. The advisors possess top expertise in the field of security, as well as having access to a unique source base through PST’s gathering of information and its cooperation with other countries’ police, intelligence and security authorities.